Lineage?level distribution models lead to more realistic climate change predictions for a threatened crayfish

Aim As climate change presents a major threat to biodiversity in the next decades, it is critical assess its impact on species habitat suitability inform conservation. Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used tool impacts species’ geographical distributions. name of these suggests, level most commonly taxonomic unit SDMs. However, recently has been demonstrated that SDMs considering resolution below (or above) can make more reliable predictions when different populations exhibit local adaptation. Here, we tested this idea using Japanese crayfish (Cambaroides japonicus), threatened encompassing two geographically structured and phylogenetically distinct genetic lineages. Location Northern Japan. Methods We first estimated niche differentiation between lineages C. japonicus n-dimensional hypervolumes then made constructed at phylogenetic levels: intraspecific lineage. Results Our results showed only intermediate overlap, demonstrating measurable differences The species-level SDM future predicted much broader severe change. lineage-level led reduced overall also suggested eastern lineage may be resilient than western one. Main conclusions occupy spaces. Compared with models, overestimate impacts. These not have important implications for designing conservation strategies species, but highlight need incorporating information into obtain realistic